'%3e%3cpath%20id='Vector'%20d='M3.46158%2024.6394L0%2038.403L38.5298%2047.9664L41.6527%2035.5155H37.89L42.405%2017.4015H46.1677L48.1245%209.56362L9.59468%200L5.23%2017.4015C5.23%2017.4015%207.45011%2026.327%207.63818%2027.0399C7.9393%2028.1275%208.05209%2029.3275%208.05209%2029.74H8.12737C8.12737%2029.3651%208.27793%2028.1275%208.54128%2027.0399C8.88016%2025.727%2010.9495%2017.4015%2010.9495%2017.4015H15.1636L17.5717%2027.0776C17.8729%2028.1651%2017.9856%2029.3651%2017.9856%2029.7777H18.0609C18.0609%2029.4028%2018.2115%2028.1651%2018.4748%2027.0776L20.9205%2017.4015H24.5327L20.0177%2035.5155H16.0667L13.4704%2025.2394C13.2071%2024.1144%2013.0943%2022.9518%2013.0943%2022.5393H13.019C13.019%2023.1767%2012.9062%2024.1518%2012.6429%2025.2394L10.0841%2035.4778H6.1331L3.46158%2024.6394ZM30.9289%2017.4015C30.9289%2017.4015%2032.9231%2025.3144%2033.149%2026.327C33.4123%2027.4151%2033.7134%2028.99%2033.6381%2029.515H33.7134L36.7611%2017.4015H40.4107L35.8958%2035.5155H31.8322C31.8322%2035.5155%2029.9132%2027.9024%2029.7251%2027.0399C29.349%2025.5769%2028.8973%2023.4768%2029.0479%2022.7644H28.9726L25.7744%2035.5155H22.1245L26.6395%2017.4015H30.9289Z'%20fill='white'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3cdefs%3e%3cclipPath%20id='clip0_0_46'%3e%3crect%20width='48.1584'%20height='48'%20fill='white'/%3e%3c/clipPath%3e%3c/defs%3e%3c/svg%3e)
EL NIÑO REPORT
Get the reportEL NIÑO / NORTH PACIFIC
The routes changed.
We supported vessels through the 2015/16 Super El Niño. Now our routing records offer a clearer view of where ships sailed during the two previous El Niño seasons — and what we can learn from them.
Selected insights first. The full report when published.
02
El Niño seasons
07
Reference seasons
OCT–MAR
Pacific crossings
A DIFFERENT KIND OF EVIDENCE
Forecasts show what may come next. Routes show what happened.
Much of the discussion around a potential Super El Niño focuses on what might happen next. Weathernews is looking at that question through a different lens, combining operational experience with proprietary routing records to compare North Pacific crossings from 2015/16 and 2023/24 with seven ENSO-neutral and La Niña reference seasons.
EARLY FINDINGS / NORTH PACIFIC
Where did vessels sail?
Our first maps show differences in route density by month and direction of travel. The October comparison below is one view of the analysis.
October Westbound
October Eastbound
El Niño: 2015/16 + 2023/24. Reference: seven ENSO-neutral or La Niña seasons.
Red = relatively higher route density during El Niño
Blue = lower. Yellow lines illustrate possible routes.
WHY IT MATTERS
A different route changes the journey.
What could these differences mean for weather exposure, voyage time and ETA reliability? That's what's coming next.
Weather exposure
Did changed routing alter the conditions vessels encountered?
Voyage impact
What did different route choices mean for distance and voyage time?
ETA reliability
How did those differences affect arrival times?
Commercial impact
What did those operational differences ultimately mean in financial terms?
THE STUDY SO FAR
Two El Niño seasons.
Seven reference seasons.
02
EL NIÑO SEASONS
2015/16 2023/24
07
REFERENCE SEASONS
ENSO-neutral & La Niña
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
2014/15 2020/21 2024/25 2025/26
North Pacific crossings, October to March. The route-density comparison is split by month and direction.
THE REPORT JOURNEY
The full picture is coming.
Register now for selected insights as they become available, followed by the full report when it is published.
01
Sign up
02
Early insights
03
Full report
What did the routes reveal?
Get selected findings and the report when it is published.
Receive the report
Report updates only. Unsubscribe any time.